Setting description

Taxel therapies more effective in the TEfus+ biomarker signature

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1, hr = 1
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 1 76 1
TP53- 4 87 1
TP53+ 2 82 2
DRD+ 6 63 1
TEfus+ 2 359 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.002 0.152 0.002
TP53- 0.008 0.174 0.002
TP53+ 0.004 0.164 0.004
DRD+ 0.012 0.126 0.002
TEfus+ 0.004 0.718 0.000
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 72 4 111
TP53- 238 21 269
TP53+ 212 22 252
DRD+ 126 11 247
TEfus+ 301 0 343
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.144 0.008 0.222
TP53- 0.476 0.042 0.538
TP53+ 0.424 0.044 0.504
DRD+ 0.252 0.022 0.494
TEfus+ 0.602 0.000 0.686
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 45 81 36
TP53+ 0 15 3
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.00 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.09 0.162 0.072
TP53+ 0.00 0.030 0.006
DRD+ 0.00 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.00 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.108.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.030             0.074             0.008

The overall power was 0.718.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.000             0.718             0.000

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all graduation 0 1 76 1
futility 0 72 4 111
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 678 (579, 747) 315 (171, 472) 380 (247, 520) 276 (143, 437)
n_unique 678 (579, 747) 315 (171, 472) 380 (247, 520) 276 (143, 437)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (50, 60) 60 (40, 60) 60 (34, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 42 (26, 56) 36 (22, 51) 36 (19, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.17 (0.02, 0.63) 0.98 (0.8, 1) 0.18 (0.02, 0.66)
rate 0.019 (0.018, 0.021) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.016 (0.014, 0.018) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025)
TP53- graduation 0 4 87 1
futility 0 238 21 269
max_n 0 45 81 36
n 375 (319, 416) 169 (65, 297) 200 (110, 302) 150 (58, 284)
n_unique 375 (319, 416) 169 (65, 297) 200 (110, 302) 150 (58, 284)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (21, 60) 60 (40, 60) 51 (19, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 30 (17, 53) 41 (24, 56) 29 (16, 49)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.28 (0.04, 0.74) 0.91 (0.56, 0.99) 0.27 (0.03, 0.7)
rate 0.02 (0.018, 0.021) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.017 (0.014, 0.019) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)
TP53+ graduation 0 2 82 2
futility 0 212 22 252
max_n 0 0 15 3
n 304 (250, 344) 132 (60, 232) 170 (97, 259) 124 (53, 206)
n_unique 304 (250, 344) 132 (60, 232) 170 (97, 259) 124 (53, 206)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (28, 60) 60 (37, 60) 58 (22, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 37 (23, 55) 38 (21, 53) 31 (20, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.22 (0.04, 0.68) 0.96 (0.67, 1) 0.24 (0.02, 0.71)
rate 0.019 (0.017, 0.021) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.015 (0.013, 0.018) 0.022 (0.018, 0.026)
DRD+ graduation 0 6 63 1
futility 0 126 11 247
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 183 (143, 212) 82 (47, 133) 98 (57, 139) 72 (50, 127)
n_unique 183 (143, 212) 82 (47, 133) 98 (57, 139) 72 (50, 127)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (43, 60) 60 (47, 60) 60 (22, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 45 (34, 57) 42 (32, 58) 29 (20, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.28 (0.03, 0.71) 0.89 (0.52, 0.99) 0.25 (0.03, 0.64)
rate 0.019 (0.016, 0.021) 0.021 (0.017, 0.027) 0.015 (0.012, 0.018) 0.022 (0.019, 0.027)
TEfus+ graduation 0 2 359 0
futility 0 301 0 343
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 236 (153, 282) 88 (50, 159) 146 (90, 230) 72 (50, 145)
n_unique 236 (153, 282) 88 (50, 159) 146 (90, 230) 72 (50, 145)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 49 (28, 60) 46 (31, 60) 43 (23, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 37 (26, 53) 40 (30, 56) 32 (21, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.09 (0.01, 0.44) 1 (0.96, 1) 0.09 (0, 0.46)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.019) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.01 (0.009, 0.012) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— graduation 0 244 152 280
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 45 80 36
n 216 (177, 245) 89 (32, 195) 99 (34, 189) 80 (21, 187)
n_unique 216 (177, 245) 89 (32, 195) 99 (34, 189) 80 (21, 187)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.09, 0.87) 0.52 (0.1, 0.86) 0.43 (0.1, 0.86)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.018, 0.028) 0.021 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.029)
–+ graduation 0 369 362 400
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 42 69 32
n 55 (35, 72) 19 (8, 48) 36 (20, 61) 15 (7, 45)
n_unique 55 (35, 72) 19 (8, 48) 36 (20, 61) 15 (7, 45)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.24 (0.05, 0.62) 0.91 (0.6, 0.99) 0.26 (0.05, 0.65)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.021) 0.022 (0.016, 0.034) 0.011 (0.007, 0.015) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034)
-+- graduation 0 220 148 275
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 15 3
n 137 (110, 158) 59 (19, 126) 60 (24, 126) 54 (17, 122)
n_unique 137 (110, 158) 59 (19, 126) 60 (24, 126) 54 (17, 122)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.12, 0.88) 0.49 (0.1, 0.86) 0.51 (0.11, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03) 0.022 (0.018, 0.03) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03)
-++ graduation 0 378 396 428
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 14 3
n 93 (54, 115) 26 (12, 69) 61 (32, 106) 20 (11, 62)
n_unique 93 (54, 115) 26 (12, 69) 61 (32, 106) 20 (11, 62)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.2 (0.03, 0.59) 0.97 (0.74, 1) 0.21 (0.03, 0.64)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.021) 0.022 (0.017, 0.032) 0.011 (0.008, 0.014) 0.023 (0.016, 0.034)
+– graduation 0 288 187 365
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 44 79 36
n 56 (39, 69) 24 (7, 52) 26 (10, 50) 19 (11, 49)
n_unique 56 (39, 69) 24 (7, 52) 26 (10, 50) 19 (11, 49)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.49 (0.13, 0.88) 0.49 (0.13, 0.84) 0.47 (0.13, 0.84)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.026) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.021 (0.015, 0.032) 0.023 (0.016, 0.032)
+-+ graduation 0 389 372 432
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 42 68 32
n 48 (29, 65) 17 (7, 44) 26 (12, 49) 16 (10, 39)
n_unique 48 (29, 65) 17 (7, 44) 26 (12, 49) 16 (10, 39)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.3 (0.06, 0.68) 0.9 (0.59, 0.99) 0.23 (0.04, 0.61)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.022) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.01 (0.006, 0.016) 0.024 (0.016, 0.034)
++- graduation 0 274 181 359
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 14 3
n 42 (32, 52) 20 (6, 38) 19 (7, 39) 15 (8, 39)
n_unique 42 (32, 52) 20 (6, 38) 19 (7, 39) 15 (8, 39)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.47 (0.13, 0.84) 0.48 (0.14, 0.82) 0.45 (0.14, 0.84)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.027) 0.022 (0.014, 0.035) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034) 0.023 (0.016, 0.035)
+++ graduation 0 403 403 452
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 0 13 3
n 36 (22, 49) 14 (6, 33) 19 (8, 37) 14 (8, 30)
n_unique 36 (22, 49) 14 (6, 33) 19 (8, 37) 14 (8, 30)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.28 (0.07, 0.68) 0.84 (0.54, 0.98) 0.28 (0.06, 0.65)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.023) 0.023 (0.014, 0.038) 0.01 (0.005, 0.017) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 1 76 1
time_stop 29 (29, 29) 36 (24, 52) 34 (34, 34)
n_trt 222 (222, 222) 270 (188, 388) 262 (262, 262)
n_control 328 (328, 328) 400 (256, 586) 369 (369, 369)
post_p 0.94 (0.94, 0.94) 0.99 (0.94, 1) 0.99 (0.99, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 3) 2 (2, 2)
TP53- count 4 87 1
time_stop 48 (36, 48) 43 (30, 57) 32 (32, 32)
n_trt 198 (158, 271) 177 (108, 278) 177 (177, 177)
n_control 298 (226, 325) 263 (179, 356) 198 (198, 198)
post_p 0.94 (0.89, 0.98) 0.98 (0.94, 1) 0.96 (0.96, 0.96)
order 2 (2, 3.4) 2 (1, 3.4) 1 (1, 1)
TP53+ count 2 82 2
time_stop 28 (24, 33) 41 (31, 53) 44 (38, 50)
n_trt 97 (86, 108) 142 (100, 201) 144 (135, 152)
n_control 130 (117, 143) 200 (143, 287) 222 (176, 268)
post_p 0.95 (0.92, 0.98) 0.98 (0.92, 1) 0.98 (0.98, 0.99)
order 1 (1, 1) 2 (1, 3) 2 (1.2, 2.8)
DRD+ count 6 63 1
time_stop 38 (30, 48) 44 (32, 58) 51 (51, 51)
n_trt 66 (54, 102) 78 (58, 117) 131 (131, 131)
n_control 120 (90, 152) 125 (94, 173) 166 (166, 166)
post_p 0.98 (0.9, 0.99) 0.98 (0.92, 1) 0.97 (0.97, 0.97)
order 1 (1, 2.5) 2 (1, 4) 2 (2, 2)
TEfus+ count 2 359
time_stop 38 (28, 47) 40 (30, 56)
n_trt 99 (85, 113) 134 (89, 199)
n_control 154 (106, 201) 167 (114, 240)
post_p 0.93 (0.89, 0.96) 0.99 (0.96, 1)
order 1.5 (1.1, 1.9) 1 (1, 2)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 72 4 111
time_stop 42 (26, 56) 8 (6, 10) 36 (19, 54)
n_trt 172 (118, 308) 57 (53, 65) 165 (107, 276)
n_control 474 (267, 625) 91 (63, 115) 409 (183, 609)
post_p 0.03 (0.01, 0.13) 0.25 (0.19, 0.26) 0.04 (0, 0.15)
order 5 (2, 7) 1 (1, 1) 4 (2, 7)
TP53- count 238 21 269
time_stop 30 (17, 53) 27 (16, 44) 29 (16, 49)
n_trt 94 (53, 211) 77 (53, 141) 91 (55, 181)
n_control 188 (97, 334) 157 (74, 283) 173 (90, 303)
post_p 0.13 (0.03, 0.26) 0.17 (0.06, 0.24) 0.17 (0.04, 0.27)
order 2 (1, 6) 2 (1, 3) 2 (1, 5)
TP53+ count 212 22 252
time_stop 37 (23, 55) 21 (15, 44) 31 (20, 51)
n_trt 88 (52, 162) 63 (51, 134) 79 (52, 145)
n_control 188 (106, 275) 100 (66, 241) 148 (85, 264)
post_p 0.11 (0.02, 0.24) 0.2 (0.08, 0.29) 0.13 (0.03, 0.27)
order 3 (1, 6) 1 (1, 3.9) 3 (1, 6)
DRD+ count 126 11 247
time_stop 45 (34, 57) 40 (34, 47) 29 (20, 51)
n_trt 66 (51, 103) 73 (66, 79) 58 (50, 87)
n_control 141 (102, 179) 132 (101, 153) 88 (54, 157)
post_p 0.1 (0.02, 0.24) 0.17 (0.05, 0.26) 0.14 (0.04, 0.27)
order 5 (2, 7) 4 (2, 6) 2 (1, 5)
TEfus+ count 301 343
time_stop 37 (26, 53) 32 (21, 53)
n_trt 69 (51, 129) 65 (51, 118)
n_control 151 (100, 224) 128 (79, 224)
post_p 0.08 (0.02, 0.22) 0.11 (0.02, 0.24)
order 3 (2, 6) 3 (1, 5)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29) 29 (29, 29)
n 86 (86, 86) 21 (21, 21) 48 (48, 48) 21 (21, 21) 12 (12, 12) 10 (10, 10) 11 (11, 11) 13 (13, 13)
post_p 0.72 (0.72, 0.72) 0.74 (0.74, 0.74) 0.79 (0.79, 0.79) 0.6 (0.6, 0.6) 0.57 (0.57, 0.57) 0.59 (0.59, 0.59) 0.67 (0.67, 0.67) 0.65 (0.65, 0.65)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.015 (0.015, 0.015) 0.008 (0.008, 0.008) 0.008 (0.008, 0.008) 0.006 (0.006, 0.006)
Taxel_therapies count 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76
time 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52) 36 (24, 52)
n 79 (36, 122) 26 (17, 44) 50 (33, 82) 46 (28, 76) 18 (9, 32) 19 (10, 34) 13 (6, 25) 13 (7, 21)
post_p 0.67 (0.57, 0.91) 0.8 (0.58, 0.96) 0.72 (0.57, 0.92) 0.88 (0.61, 0.98) 0.65 (0.56, 0.88) 0.7 (0.57, 0.93) 0.66 (0.57, 0.83) 0.64 (0.56, 0.85)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.02) 0.009 (0.003, 0.013) 0.016 (0.01, 0.021) 0.009 (0.005, 0.012) 0.013 (0.005, 0.02) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.012 (0, 0.019) 0.007 (0, 0.016)
Niraparib count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34) 34 (34, 34)
n 94 (94, 94) 24 (24, 24) 39 (39, 39) 14 (14, 14) 26 (26, 26) 33 (33, 33) 15 (15, 15) 17 (17, 17)
post_p 0.76 (0.76, 0.76) 0.82 (0.82, 0.82) 0.72 (0.72, 0.72) 0.57 (0.57, 0.57) 0.82 (0.82, 0.82) 0.72 (0.72, 0.72) 0.74 (0.74, 0.74) 0.56 (0.56, 0.56)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.009 (0.009, 0.009) 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0.013 (0.013, 0.013) 0.004 (0.004, 0.004) 0.016 (0.016, 0.016) 0.008 (0.008, 0.008) 0.012 (0.012, 0.012)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 4 4 4 4
time 48 (36, 48) 48 (36, 48) 48 (36, 48) 48 (36, 48)
n 94 (78, 150) 40 (25, 54) 28 (17, 36) 36 (28, 42)
post_p 0.78 (0.71, 0.83) 0.84 (0.79, 0.87) 0.79 (0.72, 0.88) 0.72 (0.71, 0.74)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.017) 0.015 (0.012, 0.016) 0.013 (0.009, 0.015) 0.015 (0.009, 0.018)
Taxel_therapies count 87 87 87 87
time 43 (30, 57) 43 (30, 57) 43 (30, 57) 43 (30, 57)
n 95 (43, 165) 32 (18, 50) 23 (10, 42) 21 (12, 42)
post_p 0.77 (0.71, 0.94) 0.87 (0.72, 0.98) 0.75 (0.7, 0.88) 0.83 (0.71, 0.96)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.013, 0.02) 0.009 (0.004, 0.012) 0.013 (0.007, 0.021) 0.009 (0.003, 0.014)
Niraparib count 1 1 1 1
time 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32) 32 (32, 32)
n 94 (94, 94) 24 (24, 24) 26 (26, 26) 33 (33, 33)
post_p 0.82 (0.82, 0.82) 0.78 (0.78, 0.78) 0.84 (0.84, 0.84) 0.74 (0.74, 0.74)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.005 (0.005, 0.005) 0.018 (0.018, 0.018)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 2 2 2 2
time 28 (24, 33) 28 (24, 33) 28 (24, 33) 28 (24, 33)
n 50 (41, 58) 24 (24, 25) 14 (13, 15) 9 (6, 12)
post_p 0.8 (0.78, 0.82) 0.85 (0.81, 0.89) 0.72 (0.71, 0.73) 0.67 (0.63, 0.72)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.012, 0.017) 0.007 (0.007, 0.007) 0.004 (0.001, 0.007) 0 (0, 0)
Taxel_therapies count 82 82 82 82
time 41 (31, 53) 41 (31, 53) 41 (31, 53) 41 (31, 53)
n 58 (35, 93) 50 (30, 75) 16 (8, 28) 17 (7, 27)
post_p 0.8 (0.72, 0.93) 0.89 (0.74, 0.98) 0.73 (0.62, 0.86) 0.76 (0.63, 0.93)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.016 (0.012, 0.021) 0.009 (0.005, 0.012) 0.012 (0, 0.019) 0.007 (0, 0.012)
Niraparib count 2 2 2 2
time 44 (38, 50) 44 (38, 50) 44 (38, 50) 44 (38, 50)
n 70 (60, 80) 46 (38, 53) 12 (9, 16) 15 (9, 21)
post_p 0.96 (0.96, 0.97) 0.78 (0.73, 0.83) 0.68 (0.62, 0.73) 0.74 (0.73, 0.75)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.011 (0.01, 0.012) 0.016 (0.014, 0.017) 0.011 (0.008, 0.014) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 6 6 6 6
time 38 (30, 48) 38 (30, 48) 38 (30, 48) 38 (30, 48)
n 18 (10, 24) 18 (7, 32) 20 (10, 31) 15 (12, 26)
post_p 0.74 (0.71, 0.84) 0.76 (0.72, 0.9) 0.72 (0.65, 0.79) 0.75 (0.7, 0.82)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.011 (0.005, 0.014) 0.006 (0.003, 0.011) 0.013 (0.005, 0.016) 0.006 (0.002, 0.014)
Taxel_therapies count 63 63 63 63
time 44 (32, 58) 44 (32, 58) 44 (32, 58) 44 (32, 58)
n 24 (12, 37) 26 (14, 40) 15 (8, 31) 16 (8, 26)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.91) 0.84 (0.72, 0.97) 0.74 (0.64, 0.88) 0.75 (0.64, 0.92)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.012 (0.006, 0.019) 0.008 (0.004, 0.013) 0.012 (0.006, 0.018) 0.008 (0, 0.013)
Niraparib count 1 1 1 1
time 51 (51, 51) 51 (51, 51) 51 (51, 51) 51 (51, 51)
n 37 (37, 37) 54 (54, 54) 21 (21, 21) 19 (19, 19)
post_p 0.73 (0.73, 0.73) 0.85 (0.85, 0.85) 0.75 (0.75, 0.75) 0.74 (0.74, 0.74)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.02 (0.02, 0.02) 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0.01 (0.01, 0.01) 0.014 (0.014, 0.014)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 2 2 2 2
time 38 (28, 47) 38 (28, 47) 38 (28, 47) 38 (28, 47)
n 26 (25, 28) 31 (29, 33) 30 (23, 37) 12 (7, 16)
post_p 0.72 (0.71, 0.72) 0.78 (0.77, 0.79) 0.77 (0.75, 0.78) 0.66 (0.61, 0.7)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.011 (0.009, 0.014) 0.006 (0.001, 0.01) 0.007 (0.001, 0.013) 0.003 (0.001, 0.006)
Taxel_therapies count 359 359 359 359
time 40 (30, 56) 40 (30, 56) 40 (30, 56) 40 (30, 56)
n 34 (20, 53) 57 (34, 90) 25 (13, 43) 18 (9, 32)
post_p 0.82 (0.72, 0.97) 0.88 (0.73, 0.99) 0.8 (0.7, 0.96) 0.75 (0.64, 0.92)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.009 (0.004, 0.013) 0.009 (0.005, 0.012) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72
time 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56) 42 (26, 56)
n 47 (28, 134) 15 (8, 29) 33 (14, 70) 20 (11, 40) 11 (4, 29) 13 (5, 23) 12 (5, 28) 10 (5, 19)
post_p 0.31 (0.11, 0.46) 0.36 (0.07, 0.49) 0.32 (0.09, 0.47) 0.24 (0.07, 0.47) 0.36 (0.15, 0.47) 0.32 (0.09, 0.46) 0.37 (0.14, 0.49) 0.32 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.018, 0.028) 0.021 (0.014, 0.031) 0.022 (0.019, 0.032) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.027 (0.018, 0.045) 0.022 (0.014, 0.044) 0.025 (0.018, 0.048) 0.025 (0.016, 0.042)
Taxel_therapies count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
time 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10) 8 (6, 10)
n 18 (17, 20) 8 (5, 9) 16 (13, 19) 12 (11, 13) 2 (1, 2) 0 (0, 2) 0 (0, 1) 2 (0, 4)
post_p 0.39 (0.26, 0.45) 0.5 (0.49, 0.5) 0.45 (0.35, 0.49) 0.43 (0.4, 0.46) 0.49 (0.46, 0.5) 0.49 (0.49, 0.49) 0.48 (0.48, 0.48) 0.49 (0.48, 0.5)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.035) 0 (0, 0) 0.02 (0.02, 0.04) 0.017 (0.014, 0.041) 0 (0, 0.215) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
Niraparib count 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111
time 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54) 36 (19, 54)
n 34 (16, 105) 11 (6, 25) 29 (13, 71) 16 (8, 32) 15 (9, 26) 13 (8, 23) 12 (8, 19) 12 (7, 19)
post_p 0.32 (0.09, 0.47) 0.38 (0.1, 0.48) 0.37 (0.18, 0.47) 0.26 (0.05, 0.45) 0.37 (0.13, 0.48) 0.3 (0.1, 0.47) 0.38 (0.12, 0.48) 0.35 (0.15, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.021 (0.014, 0.042) 0.022 (0.017, 0.031) 0.023 (0.015, 0.045) 0.024 (0.015, 0.039) 0.022 (0.013, 0.036) 0.023 (0.015, 0.037) 0.021 (0.012, 0.035)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 238 238 238 238
time 30 (17, 53) 30 (17, 53) 30 (17, 53) 30 (17, 53)
n 48 (28, 145) 14 (8, 31) 12 (6, 35) 12 (5, 26)
post_p 0.33 (0.1, 0.48) 0.38 (0.1, 0.48) 0.43 (0.23, 0.49) 0.39 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.028) 0.021 (0.013, 0.034) 0.024 (0.017, 0.044) 0.023 (0.015, 0.049)
Taxel_therapies count 21 21 21 21
time 27 (16, 44) 27 (16, 44) 27 (16, 44) 27 (16, 44)
n 32 (23, 58) 19 (11, 37) 11 (7, 20) 12 (5, 29)
post_p 0.26 (0.08, 0.38) 0.46 (0.41, 0.49) 0.45 (0.23, 0.49) 0.48 (0.36, 0.5)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.03) 0.014 (0.011, 0.022) 0.028 (0.016, 0.035) 0.016 (0.009, 0.024)
Niraparib count 269 269 269 269
time 29 (16, 49) 29 (16, 49) 29 (16, 49) 29 (16, 49)
n 41 (18, 120) 12 (6, 24) 16 (10, 28) 14 (9, 25)
post_p 0.37 (0.13, 0.48) 0.4 (0.16, 0.48) 0.4 (0.19, 0.49) 0.35 (0.1, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.03) 0.02 (0.013, 0.039) 0.022 (0.013, 0.032) 0.021 (0.012, 0.035)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 212 212 212 212
time 37 (23, 55) 37 (23, 55) 37 (23, 55) 37 (23, 55)
n 36 (17, 87) 22 (12, 48) 13 (5, 29) 11 (5, 23)
post_p 0.36 (0.09, 0.48) 0.25 (0.08, 0.46) 0.41 (0.22, 0.48) 0.4 (0.14, 0.48)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.017, 0.032) 0.021 (0.015, 0.034) 0.025 (0.018, 0.045) 0.023 (0.014, 0.045)
Taxel_therapies count 22 22 22 22
time 21 (15, 44) 21 (15, 44) 21 (15, 44) 21 (15, 44)
n 27 (21, 55) 22 (18, 81) 8 (2, 19) 6 (2, 17)
post_p 0.32 (0.14, 0.46) 0.45 (0.21, 0.47) 0.42 (0.36, 0.5) 0.47 (0.4, 0.49)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.016, 0.029) 0.014 (0.009, 0.022) 0.025 (0.012, 0.078) 0.018 (0.013, 0.129)
Niraparib count 252 252 252 252
time 31 (20, 51) 31 (20, 51) 31 (20, 51) 31 (20, 51)
n 32 (16, 78) 17 (10, 43) 13 (8, 21) 12 (7, 21)
post_p 0.4 (0.21, 0.48) 0.34 (0.07, 0.47) 0.39 (0.18, 0.48) 0.36 (0.12, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.029) 0.02 (0.014, 0.036) 0.022 (0.014, 0.037) 0.021 (0.013, 0.036)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 126 126 126 126
time 45 (34, 57) 45 (34, 57) 45 (34, 57) 45 (34, 57)
n 17 (7, 38) 15 (8, 35) 17 (7, 30) 14 (6, 24)
post_p 0.4 (0.15, 0.48) 0.3 (0.08, 0.47) 0.37 (0.13, 0.49) 0.35 (0.11, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.024 (0.018, 0.036) 0.022 (0.014, 0.037) 0.025 (0.017, 0.036) 0.023 (0.015, 0.041)
Taxel_therapies count 11 11 11 11
time 40 (34, 47) 40 (34, 47) 40 (34, 47) 40 (34, 47)
n 21 (8, 30) 19 (9, 26) 13 (7, 24) 19 (11, 25)
post_p 0.43 (0.15, 0.48) 0.43 (0.23, 0.49) 0.38 (0.17, 0.48) 0.44 (0.33, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.019 (0.018, 0.032) 0.017 (0.015, 0.023) 0.024 (0.02, 0.04) 0.018 (0.012, 0.027)
Niraparib count 247 247 247 247
time 29 (20, 51) 29 (20, 51) 29 (20, 51) 29 (20, 51)
n 17 (11, 30) 15 (10, 25) 13 (8, 23) 13 (8, 22)
post_p 0.4 (0.15, 0.49) 0.35 (0.1, 0.47) 0.4 (0.22, 0.48) 0.39 (0.17, 0.48)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.022 (0.014, 0.033) 0.021 (0.013, 0.036) 0.022 (0.013, 0.039) 0.02 (0.011, 0.031)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 301 301 301 301
time 37 (26, 53) 37 (26, 53) 37 (26, 53) 37 (26, 53)
n 17 (8, 39) 24 (12, 55) 15 (7, 35) 12 (6, 25)
post_p 0.32 (0.08, 0.48) 0.29 (0.07, 0.47) 0.38 (0.12, 0.48) 0.4 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.035) 0.02 (0.014, 0.033) 0.021 (0.014, 0.033) 0.023 (0.014, 0.041)
Niraparib count 343 343 343 343
time 32 (21, 53) 32 (21, 53) 32 (21, 53) 32 (21, 53)
n 14 (8, 33) 20 (11, 52) 16 (10, 28) 13 (8, 26)
post_p 0.39 (0.13, 0.48) 0.35 (0.08, 0.47) 0.32 (0.08, 0.46) 0.38 (0.12, 0.49)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.037) 0.02 (0.013, 0.032) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034) 0.021 (0.013, 0.034)